摘要

(資料圖片僅供參考)

聯(lián)儲宣布加息75bp，符合預期。

重申回歸2%的通脹目標將使自身保持限制性緊縮的政策立場(chǎng)。

對未來(lái)兩次會(huì )議削減加息幅度持開(kāi)放態(tài)度，并寫(xiě)進(jìn)聲明，在發(fā)布會(huì )以前被市場(chǎng)解讀為鴿派信號。

發(fā)布會(huì )開(kāi)啟后，鮑威爾落下不少重話(huà)，風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)多頭丟盔卸甲。

本次會(huì )議無(wú)經(jīng)濟預測和點(diǎn)陣圖，但視為聯(lián)儲進(jìn)入政策緊縮二階段的分水嶺會(huì )議。

終端利率可能在12月迎來(lái)小幅的提升，加息的節奏雖然放緩，但高利率的久期被拉長(cháng)（Higher for Longer）——直到聯(lián)儲對通脹下行的幅度與速度感到滿(mǎn)意，又或者經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)陷入難以容忍的衰退。

聲明新增內容

The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

委員會(huì )預計不斷提高政策利率的目標區間將是適當的，以達到足夠的限制性的貨幣政策立場(chǎng)，使通貨膨脹在一段時(shí)間內恢復到2%。

在確定未來(lái)提高利率的速度時(shí)，委員會(huì )將考慮到貨幣政策持續累積的緊縮，貨幣政策影響經(jīng)濟活動(dòng)和通貨膨脹的滯后性，以及經(jīng)濟和金融發(fā)展。

附：這段表態(tài)可視為聯(lián)儲對未來(lái)放緩加息幅度開(kāi)了個(gè)口子。

本次會(huì )議決定為全票通過(guò)。未體現出內部分歧。

附：通常聯(lián)儲在政策轉向時(shí)會(huì )出現票委意見(jiàn)不一致導致的票型不一致的情況。

經(jīng)濟預測與點(diǎn)陣圖

僅季末會(huì )議提供點(diǎn)陣圖和經(jīng)濟預測。讓我們期待下一次會(huì )議。

發(fā)布會(huì )亮點(diǎn)

本次議息會(huì )議的發(fā)布會(huì )有很多亮點(diǎn)，比如表情包：

圖：鮑威爾回答“美聯(lián)儲通訊社”記者Nick提問(wèn)時(shí)的表情

圖：提到“暫停加息的想法為時(shí)過(guò)早”的時(shí)候，鮑威爾的肢體語(yǔ)言非常堅定。

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題1：有關(guān)緊縮政策的三要素。

答：how fast（多快），how high（多高）和how long（多久）。

目前聯(lián)儲對加息節奏有所松口，但是對終端利率的高點(diǎn)以及高利率持續的久期問(wèn)題表態(tài)依然偏鷹派。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，在未來(lái)較長(cháng)的一段時(shí)間內，市場(chǎng)需要容忍更高的利率環(huán)境。

同時(shí)，鮑威爾直言目前諸位的目光不應該放在加息的速率（fast）上了，第二和第三個(gè)問(wèn)題更重要。確實(shí)12月和1月的會(huì )議上會(huì )開(kāi)始討論加息節奏的放緩。

“I"m pleased that we have moved as fast as I have. I don"t think we"ve overtightened.”

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題2：有關(guān)聲明提及貨幣政策的遲滯性。

答：壓垮市場(chǎng)的一段話(huà)來(lái)了……

Let me say this, it is?very premature to be thinking about pausing. When they hear lags, they think about a pause. It"s very premature in my view to be thinking about or talking about pausing our rate hike.

想著(zhù)暫停加息為時(shí)過(guò)早！直接打臉之前的“轉向論”。

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題3：有關(guān)市場(chǎng)和媒體最近關(guān)注比較多的“風(fēng)險管理”（Risk Management）

答：風(fēng)險管理的視角下現在聯(lián)儲考慮的是緊得不夠和松得過(guò)早，而不是緊過(guò)頭和松太晚！

From a risk management standpoint we want to make sure that we don"t make the mistake of?either failing to tighten enoughor?loosening policy too soon.

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題4：有關(guān)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)與薪資通脹

答：沒(méi)有出現薪資通脹螺旋，但是一旦出現了，你就麻煩了。目前就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然強勁，恢復供需平衡仍有很長(cháng)的路要走。

I also don"t think we see a wage price spiral. But, again, it"s not something you can -- once you see it, you"re in trouble. We don"t want to see it. We want wages to go up. We want them to go up at a level that"s sustainable and consistent with 2% inflation.

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題5：有關(guān)海外風(fēng)險是否會(huì )對貨幣政策構成影響？

答：依然著(zhù)力于通脹，說(shuō)明聯(lián)儲目前并不怎么在意全球目標，而是優(yōu)先考慮本土目標，本土目標中，通脹又是最高優(yōu)先級。

The world"s not going to be better off if we fail to do that. That"s a task we need to do.?Price stability in the United States is a good thing for the global economy over a long period of time.

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題6：加息過(guò)頭會(huì )怎么樣？

答：鮑威爾給出了一個(gè)非常明確的答復，即他不擔心在緊縮上做過(guò)頭，理由很簡(jiǎn)單，加得越多以后降起來(lái)也毫無(wú)壓力。

Again, if we overtighten and we don"t want to -- we want to get this exactly right.?But if we overtighten, then?we have the ability with our tools, which are powerful,?as we showed at the beginning of the pandemic episode.We can support economic activities strongly if that happens, if that"s necessary.

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題7：你如何看待市場(chǎng)對你表態(tài)的反應？你樂(lè )見(jiàn)于大家往好處想嗎？

答：直接潑冷水——我們還有很長(cháng)的路要走。12月的SEP中點(diǎn)陣圖可能會(huì )指向更高。我們目前非常堅定地認為必須控制通脹回歸目標，我們不想犯下做得不夠多或者半途而廢過(guò)早撤回強力緊縮政策的錯誤。

So I would also say?it"s premature to discuss pausing. It"s?not something that we"re thinking about. That"s really?not a conversation to be had now. We?have a ways to go.

The last thing I"ll say is that I?would want people to understand our commitment to getting this doneand to not making the mistake of?not doing enoughor the?mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon.

亮點(diǎn)問(wèn)題8：軟著(zhù)陸的路是不是越走越窄了？

答：是的……但還是有可能軟著(zhù)陸的，但是很難。隨著(zhù)利率越高且持續高位，路變得越來(lái)越窄。

貝弗里奇曲線(xiàn)有異變，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)還是非常強，我們仍需觀(guān)察。通脹也一直下不來(lái)。

we would have expected goods inflation to come down by now, long since by now.?It really hasn"t. Although -- actually it has come down,?but not to the extent we had hoped. At the same time now you see?services inflation, core services inflation moving up. I think the?inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year, without question.

That means that?we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path of a soft landing.?I would say. Thanks very much.

本文來(lái)源：智堡Wisburg，原文標題：《2022年11月美聯(lián)儲FOMC議息會(huì )議筆記：開(kāi)啟緊縮的二階段》

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關(guān)鍵詞： 貨幣政策 經(jīng)濟預測 為時(shí)過(guò)早